Iran-Israel War Causes Bloodbath in the Market, BTC slides Below to $102K But Will this Trend Continue or Reverse

After almost pulling out major breakouts on May 21, May 22, June 9, June 10 and June 11 which were signalling massive gains to follow in the coming days with some of the experts hinting at somewhere around 158k per BTC within just a few weeks, the rising tension in the Middle East between Iran and Israel has pulled BTC to its new lows in last few days  at 102k levels, negating all the claims. Though BTC recovered modestly to 105K levels immediately after that pull back, the long side upsides look ambiguous right at this moment despite the market signalling 80% bullish sentiments.  

Oil To Put BTC Sentiments To Check 

Oil ↑. Bitcoin ↓ , this is the usual sentiment/ equation  when it comes to comparing BTC with oil, because oil is used as an alternative for electricity  in Bitcoin mining. 

With that said, as per the equation, it is implied that whenever the price of oil rises,  BTC falls.

As you can see from the chart above, in 2024, in the month of August, oil prices were falling and it had become cheaper to mine BTC. The rigorous demand had put BTC quickly up because this almost happened post the halving where the demand was already there. At the present moment, Oil has gone past $90/barrel, which will put pressure on BTC. But the short term signals are showing optimism with the 50 Day EMA crossing over the 200 Day EMA, showing positive sentiments ahead. 

Will The Downtrend for BTC Continue?

It is hard to say whether BTC will be consolidating, going down or spiraling back to a breakout, but it cannot be questioned at the same time, in some situations, despite  being said that Oil ↑ Bitcoin ↓ equation, in some instances, even the reverse has also happened. So, you cannot go by the rule of thumb that everytime  the price of oil rises, BTC will slide, because in the face of imminent instability like a war, BTC has also ended up as a perfect hedge instrument and risen to new highs as evident from the image below; 

As you can see in the image above, BTC experienced a minor crash when the war started between Russia and Ukraine, as we are seeing with Iran and Israel, but it was followed by a sharp correction and a 15% gain in a couple of days. At the moment, this will be a wait and watch attitude moving forward until something substantial is seen.