BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expects BTC to test $100,000 and ETH to revisit $3,000 following the release of the weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. According to Hayes’s Post on X, the NFP data for July was well below market expectations, and this could affect the progress of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
He said that following the release of non-farm payroll data, the market broadly anticipates increased macroeconomic pressure. Currently, no major economy is creating credit fast enough to support nominal GDP growth. This is a bold prediction coming from Hayes, who is revered for his opinion and expert analysis.
A look at NFP Statistics for July
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for July were lower than expected, while unemployment remained unchanged. U.S. NFP rose by 73,000 in July compared to the expected 100k (previously 147k), with 83,000 jobs added by the private sector. Meanwhile, unemployment rose 4.2%, matching expectations (previously 4.1%).
The lower-than-expected NFP figures might lead to market concerns regarding economic growth, potentially affecting investor sentiment negatively. This, Hayes predicts, may affect the crypto market. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $113,000, while Ethereum trades at around $3,400.
What Backs Hayes’s Predictions
The Bitmex co-founder tied the bearish predictions to two macroeconomic pressures – the looming U.S. tariff bill taking effect in August 2025, and the deteriorating nominal GDP growth caused by a lack of new credit creation. The BitMEX co-founder made a post on X regarding it. “US Tariff bill coming due in 3Q … at least the market believes that after NFP print. No major econ is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal GDP. So $BTC tests $100k, $ETH tests $3k.”
Hayes said the NFP report showed a significant slowdown in U.S. hiring, with 73,000 jobs added against the expected 100,000. He argues that the weak labor data signals low credit expansion and low nominal GDP growth, which could affect investor appetite across all markets. Furthermore, the looming tariff measures, which take place this August after the expiration of the grace period, may affect trade prices and dampen economic momentum.
He said conservative assets, such as Bitcoin, look more attractive in the long run, but may face a retest due to short-term pressure. His thesis was backed by on-chain data, which showed that Hayes himself sold 2,373 ETH worth $8.3M, 7.76M ENA worth $4.6M), and 38.86B PEPE ($414K) across Uniswap, Flow desk, and Binance. This observed sell-off signals short-term volatility. Despite the move, Hayes believes Bitcoin could reach $250,000 before the year-end.
Implications of Hayes’s Prediction on Traders and the Crypto Market
Hayes’ sell-off implies an impending correction, which he predicted. A pullback to $100,000 from the current BTC trading price amounts to about 12%. Short-term traders may be convinced to engage in a sell-off to capitalize on the downside momentum.
However, Hayes’s short-term sell-off doesn’t change his long-term conviction about the crypto market. At best, his move is viewed by many as tactical – locking in gains, while maintaining long-term confidence. Long-term traders and institutional players may assume a defensive positioning for now to see how the market plays out.
Following Hayes’s prediction, the crypto market experienced a massive liquidation. Bitcoin fell 3%, Ethereum dropped more than 6%, and the broader crypto market lost. Over $850,000,000 was wiped from the market in long and short positions, signalling a downturn momentum.
What’s Next for the Crypto Market?
Long-term traders view Hayes’s prediction as an opportunity to rebalance their portfolios rather than engage in a massive sell-off, given his bullish perspective on Bitcoin. Still, the traders need to watch out for what’s to come next, especially with the August-September tariff implementation, which could intensify BTC’s pullback to even below $100k. Also, continued weak labor data may deepen the downside.
However, an impending rate cut may boost liquidity and fuel BTC’s recovery above $120k. Nothing is certain yet, but we do hope that subsequent macroeconomic data becomes favorable for the crypto market. Hayes is a prominent figure in the crypto space, and his long-term bullish conviction about Bitcoin could help maintain positive sentiments and some stability, keeping BTC within the $100k to $120k range.
